By now, you will have heard of one of the biggest roster shake-ups in recent Dota 2 memory.

Two top-tier Western teams, Team Secret and Evil Geniuses, revealed roster changes merely four days before the lock-in dates for the Manila Majors and The International 6.

Of the many things we have learned since the news broke out earlier today, one topic is at the heart and center of the shake-ups: the topic of the Majors system and the roster lock-in period that was instituted alongside it.

With the veritable tectonic shifts that happened all in a space of a few hours, analysts have pointed to the Majors system and the roster locks and how both have done little to stabilize the professional Dota 2 scene.

To this end, I would like to point out a differing opinion: That the regimented chaos of the roster lock is only harmful when it leaves little time for players to decide their fates and that the bigger culprit lies elsewhere.

History

The Majors system that Valve introduced at the conclusion of The International (TI) 5 was set in place to solve a problem: instability in the Dota 2 professional scene.

Particularly, the topic du jour since the fourth TI was that professional players were suffering from a saturation of tournaments. Teams and players were burning out as they attempted to play just about every qualifier and LAN they can get their hands on. With Valve famously opaque on the subject of what it takes to qualify for The International, teams had zero choice but to throw themselves upon the tournament circuit perpetually until the invites were sent out.

All of this, in order to qualify for the biggest tournament at the end of the year.

To say that The International is the end goal for all professional Dota 2 players is an understatement. As a tournament, The International eclipses all other eSports events. It’s such an important cornerstone of a Dota player’s career that entire rosters are built just to compete in it. Anything less than a stellar performance at The International and it’s good bye line-up.

From 2011 to 2013, professional Dota 2 was essentially an unsustainable, top-heavy pyramid. Player careers hinged on amazing performances at The International. Before Valve announced that every team at The International would get a least a small portion of the total prize pool, even a top 10 finish would force players and teams to completely fold. It was not uncommon for players to decree that they would be retiring from the scene.

Enter the Majors. The Dota 2 Majors were to solve two key issues. First, with four Valve-owned tournaments around the year, teams have a reasonable barometer of their chances at a direct invite to The International. Second, teams will need to lock-in their rosters for every Majors season. In theory, teams would be asked to perform with a relatively stable line-up.

The goal here is clear: foster a more stable environment that benefits the players and fans.

TOO EASY. Artour “Arteezy” Babaev has long been hailed as one of the top players in Western Dota 2. To date, Arteezy has switched between two teams since The International 5.

What Works

The roster lock-in periods are sound in theory and for the most part served their intended purposes well. By dividing the calendar of professional Dota 2 into seasons that revolved around the Majors, teams and players had ample time to work with an optimal line-up that is beneficial to all.

Players being removed from teams is no strange phenomenon. With a seasonal anchor to the changes, teams and players are given enough time to regroup and reform in order to mount a reasonable shot at The International.

Instead of forcing teams to stay together in sub-optimal configurations, the Majors give them smaller seasonal trade periods. This allows teams to make incremental changes to their line-up before the big leagues at the end of Dota 2 calendar.

Wrong Incentives

At the conclusion of the Frankfurt Major, teams were able to reshuffle. Players who found themselves left out of their squads still had the Shanghai Major or the Manila Major to look for a new group or organization and string an impressive tournament run.

However, the period between the Manila Major and The International 6 is different. Roster locks for Manila extend into The International 6 and beyond. A team’s roster after Shanghai would have to stay together — regardless of results — all the way to The International 6.

In effect, by locking rosters for both the Manila Majors and The International, Valve has effectively incentivized teams to drop players at the last minute for fear of being stuck in a commitment spanning over five months — subverting the stability they put in place.

This on its own is not a bad thing. After all, teams should be making decisions predicated on winning events.  But because there is no time to change rosters right before The International 6, the players who are left out right before the trade deadline are the biggest losers.

Fans will remember Kurtis “Aui_2000” Ling’s famous removal from Evil Genius almost immediately after winning The International 5.  While many have compared his removal from the fates of Rasmus “MiSeRy” Filipsen and Aliwi “w33” Omar, the fact is that both MiSeRy and w33 received a considerably shorter end of the stick.

While Aui’s removal from Evil Geniuses gave him more than ample time to find a new team, Digital Chaos. Aui had the additional benefit of having two Majors with which to tweak his team’s line-ups or even seek greener pastures with a different squad and still have a shot at the next Major.

But for MiSeRy and w33, two players who have also won a Major not even a month ago, their futures are uncertain. The teams that this two players take on have to stay together, perform well and produce consistent results through the Manila Major and the qualifier period for The International 6. Factor in the hard task of even finding a decent line-up they need to bet their lives on for the next five months — all in the space of four days — and you can see where the gaps lie in Valve’s system.

Plugging the gaps

We’ve established that the Majors works well in that it gives teams a clearer roadmap of objectives they need to tick off before they can be invited to the pot at the rainbow. We’ve also established that in its current state, the roster lock periods for the Manila Major and The International 6 are placing pressure on teams to make rushed decisions that ultimately screw over players who are blind-sided by last minute roster swaps.

So what can be done to plug the gap? A simple solution would be to introduce different dates for roster drops and roster acquisitions. In this way, teams are mandated to let their players know ahead of time that they will be removed from the team. This will also give players enough time to spend as free-agents since other teams will have a specific date to announce new acquisition.

A healthier market will then be available for both teams and players. Anyone without a team can connect with an organization who is missing a player, all within the roster trade period and not at the very last minute.

But there is one other issue that’s worth mentioning: At the end of the day, all of these gaps can be resolved by a simple systems change, but anything less than an enforceable, player’s union contract that specifically stipulates protection for players against last-minute roster drops will be subject to the same problems we have now.

In that same vein, these same contracts should clearly state that players need to honor their time on teams, giving them no ground to just uproot themselves and move to greener pastures at a moment’s notice.

The case of MiSeRy and w33 being dropped out of Team Secret would be less of a shock had the teams announced their decisions a week after the conclusion of Shanghai. Both players would be in less turmoil over their financial and professional feature had they been given more than four days to decide their fate.

Until players can protect themselves through their contracts, then any trade deadline system will produce unwanted consequences for professional players. With the clock ticking down on MiSeRy, w33 and Evil Geniuses about to be announced new acquisitions, the community can only hope for a better way to take care of players.

All photos care of Dota2.

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