The Background

There was a time when my friends were annoyed by my predictions on matches. They had one simple solution: They challenged me to place bets for three days to see how much I can win!

In Dota 2, players can pick up virtual items that range from cosmetic tweaks on their favorite heroes to inventory items that allow them a bit more customization in their gameplay. These items drop a percentage amount of time after games or may be purchased from the Steam community market. These items range in rarity from commons to the expensive arcanas.

Dota2Lounge is a website that allows you to place your virtual items and bet them on upcoming matches. In turn, the service pays out in more items, allowing players who enjoy a little bit of gambling to have another use for their virtual hats. The site links with your steam account and for the most part automates the entire transaction.

After a few days of spending my time on Dota2Lounge, I decided to stop and look at things I could have done better. There’s a tab on the site called “My Bets”, where one can bet one’s in-game items on the team that he or she wants to win. There is a set amount of returns depending on the value of one’s bet and one can either go big or go home.

I had a very good win rate before I decided that I have spent enough time on the Dota2Lounge betting site, which is well-known as one of the largest item betting sites on the World Wide Web.

10-4-1 record: 70% win rate. Take note that I did not gain a lot though.

So, with that little experiment done, here is a little guide for those of you who want to start betting. This is not designed as a foolproof way to bet, but rather a guide that offers a possible perspective for you to start with!

Always remember the golden rule: Bet at your own risk.

So here we go!

The Math

I started with only a value of 0.22 (that translates to 20 cents if ever these items were converted into real money) in items and I began betting on matches with requested returns of at least 0.44 value worth of items (that’s basically worth twice what I have invested, as you can see). That means that without counting the other items that I won (which I used to bet on other matches), I got a profit of 100% in 4 days!

Depending on the value of the item and the value of the bet, it is possible for a common item to get an item that is ten times more than its face value. For example, a Eul’s Scepter, which has a value of $0.15, can actually gain an immortal such as a Geodesic Eidolon (which is around $1.50). The betting site is the one that puts values on items and it won’t matter whether your item is common, uncommon or rare — it  is possible to win high-value items with the right calls and the right techniques!

The Logic

I do not bet just for the sake of betting. I just wanted to show how to bet with a level head. Of course, with this method, you will not hit the jackpot hard, but you will not lose a lot and there’s an almost guaranteed chance of you winning! Take note that luck is a significant factor in the betting business: All my losses were supposed to be “sure wins”, so you get the idea. At the end of the day, gambling is exactly that: gambling. There are going to be times when luck will not favor you, so it’s important to understand that when two teams are fighting for something so hard, the outcome is rarely clear-cut.

Here are my three key words for betting: Foresight, Passion and Control:

Before betting on any team, ask yourself the following questions based on these three concepts:

Foresight = Did you research about the team that you are about to bet on? Do you know their strengths and weaknesses? Do you know how much they can last against the other side? Are they prone to throwing? Are they stable? Are they playing with a stand-in?

Passion = Are you willing to bet a large amount? Is your heart in it? Will you bet on the other side as a hedge against what happens? Are you willing to use mind games against others? Is your willpower strong enough to resist the mind games of others?

Control = Is betting on an underdog team worth the risk? How much should I put into a bet in order to earn something? Are strong teams always a safe bet? Can weak teams surprise the other side? Can I endure it if the team loses?

If you have good answers to these questions, then go and select the team that you want to bet your items on!

The X Factor

You need to have “THAT” X-factor (Whilst doing the Degeneration X “Suck it” sign)

Of course, let us not forget these external factors that may affect any stage of the betting process:

1. Human Factor = Other people may try to rig the values by throwing mind games, making players change teams (and indirectly affect the values of the items that they gain in case they win the bet). This is why research before betting is a must.
2. Luck = A strong team may just simply have a very bad day. A weak team may simply be lucky. In this case, build up your optimist aura along with your betting skills! Remember that luck is all about averages. Don’t be too distressed when a team with a high average of performances loses you a bet or two. Given a long period of time, the strongest teams always perform better than other teams because of their teamwork. If a 70% win rate team lost you a few bets, you may have gotten hit during the 30% of the time wherein they could lose.
3. Return Values = Betting on matches where one is not assured of a return profit (i.e. very low values) is not recommended because of the high risk involved: If you win, you win low values compared to what you would lose!

So, where should I bet? What is the order, if any?

Again, it’s all about risk management. Here are some of my recommended ways to bet:

1. Matches that almost have a 50-50* rating, but where one team is slightly considered he underdog: Bet on the lower rating. No matter which team wins, items will be lost anyway, so why not bet on the team that might give you a slightly higher chance of profit?
2. Matches that have a 70-30 rating, where the one that holds the 70 is the stronger team: Bet a bit on the stronger team. In case of upsets, you will not lose that much; in case the stronger team wins, you will gain good returns.
3. Matches with teams that a very high rate of return and have a slight chance of winning: Bet on the team with the lower rating. Most of the time, it works wonders!
4. Matches that are surefire wins (i.e. 85-15 or higher where that which holds the 85 is the stronger team on paper): Bet small on the stronger team on paper; however, if that team has a streak to break (i.e. having 10+ wins), then it is strongly advisable for you to bet on the team with the lower value.

Wishing you all the best of luck in your respective betting journeys! I hope you found this guide helpful!

*The numbers refer to the pre-game percentages (as you can see, they all add up to 100%).

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